empty
18.03.2025 11:36 AM
Positive Data from China and Rising Risk Appetite Support a Bullish Outlook for the Kiwi – NZD/USD Analysis

The New Zealand dollar (NZD) has gained another strong bullish factor as the ANX Commodity Price Index recorded another solid increase in February, rising 3.0% month-on-month (m/m) and 14% year-on-year (y/y). If the trade war bypasses New Zealand, the country's trade balance will remain consistently in surplus, helping to stabilize the domestic economy faster and return to a growth trajectory.

This image is no longer relevant

Market participants interpreted the latest economic data positively, making the Kiwi the best-performing major currency on Monday.

The rally was supported by upbeat economic data from China, where retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment all exceeded forecasts. Another positive factor for NZD is the broad increase in risk appetite, as the potential for de-escalating geopolitical tensions has emerged.

On Wednesday evening, the final Q4 GDP report will be released, with the primary focus on private consumption trends, as this indicator reflects the recovery of consumer demand. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, NZD could receive another bullish signal.

Following the resignation of Adrian Orr as RBNZ Governor, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to take a more cautious, conservative approach, which is also supportive of the Kiwi—a potential rate cut may slow down. Overall, NZD has a chance to take advantage of favorable market conditions and continue its upward momentum.

Speculative positioning remains bearish, but the net short position on NZD slightly decreased by $134 million to -$3.026 billion over the reporting week. Short-term factors continue to support the Kiwi's rally, and the fair value estimate has accelerated upward.

This image is no longer relevant

Technical Outlook for NZD/USD

NZD/USD is attempting to extend its corrective rally, fueled by positive external factors, and has approached key technical resistance at 0.5839. A break above this level is likely, as this scenario appears more probable than another downside retracement.

The next resistance zone and upside target lies at 0.5920/40, but further gains depend on a combination of factors, primarily continued demand for risk assets.

Key support is at 0.5768, and any pullback to this level could be used as a buying opportunity. While the bullish momentum remains intact, it is driven primarily by external factors, meaning the duration of NZD/USD's rally will depend on how long the favorable external environment persists.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD. Trump Sends the Dollar into Knockdown Again

The EUR/USD pair is experiencing a correction following Donald Trump's latest statements, as he has once again reignited the tariff war. Interestingly, the greenback initially reacted positively to the president's

Irina Manzenko 23:44 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Gold Knows the Path to Victory

Gold was not a market favorite following Donald Trump's victory in the November elections. In fact, it pulled back once the red wave became clear and the Republican's return

Marek Petkovich 10:55 2025-03-27 UTC+2

XAU/USD – Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to hold its intraday gains, trading near the weekly high around the $3036 level. This is due to several factors, including uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy

Irina Yanina 10:44 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Trump imposes new auto tariffs

The euro, the pound sterling, and other risk-sensitive assets tumbled yesterday following news that President Donald Trump had signed an executive order to impose a 25 percent tariff on imported

Jakub Novak 10:33 2025-03-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is gaining some positive traction, breaking a six-day losing streak. The bullish momentum is lifting spot prices toward the 1.0785 level, marking a new daily high

Irina Yanina 09:58 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Who Had Any Doubts? Trump Remains Committed to His Economic Course (GBP/USD May Fall, #SPX May Rise)

Despite the ongoing political maneuvering, U.S. President Donald Trump remains committed to his economic strategy. This approach aims to dismantle the long-standing global economic model in which the U.S. primarily

Pati Gani 09:21 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Market picks wrong favorite

The higher the climb, the harder the fall. The S&P 500 tumbled in response to Donald Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on automobiles. There will be no exceptions, although countries

Marek Petkovich 08:13 2025-03-27 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 27? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, and even fewer are deemed important. The only report that deserves attention is the third estimate of U.S

Paolo Greco 05:42 2025-03-27 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 27: The British Pound Stalls

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair openly traded in a flat range. Volatility remains low, with no trending movements even within the day. In other words, the market is simply

Paolo Greco 03:06 2025-03-27 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 27: Donald Trump Steps Back

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued trading with minimal volatility and a slight downward bias. Trading volumes were absent, which is unsurprising—there has been very little news this week

Paolo Greco 03:06 2025-03-27 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.