empty
14.01.2025 01:26 PM
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 14th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I focused on the 1.0277 level and planned to make trading decisions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to see what happened. The price rose but fell just a couple of points short of testing this range and forming a false breakout, leaving me without trades in the first half of the day. For the second half of the day, the technical picture was revised.

This image is no longer relevant

For Opening Long Positions on EUR/USD:

The euro remains within a channel, unable to break above yesterday's high, suggesting that pressure on the pair could return during the US session as significant fundamental statistics are expected. Today will act as a "warm-up" before tomorrow's key US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Reports on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Core PPI excluding food and energy prices are anticipated. A rise in these indicators could bolster the US dollar. Additionally, speeches from FOMC members John Williams and Jeffrey Schmid will be in focus, providing the first comments following last week's strong US labor market report.

If pressure returns to the pair, I plan to act only near the closest support at 1.0241, which narrowly missed a test earlier today. Only a false breakout there would provide a good entry point for buying, targeting resistance at 1.0292. A breakout and retest of this range would confirm a valid entry point for a push toward 1.0324. The ultimate target will be the 1.0356 high, where I will lock in profits. If EUR/USD declines amid strong US data and lacks activity near 1.0241, the pressure will intensify, with sellers likely pushing the pair toward 1.0210 and 1.0182, marking a new yearly low. I will consider long positions only after a false breakout at these levels. Immediate buying on a rebound will be considered at 1.0132, targeting a 30-35 point intraday correction.

For Opening Short Positions on EUR/USD:

Sellers are not particularly active, as yesterday's rumors related to trade tariffs have discouraged selling the euro at current lows. A false breakout around the new resistance at 1.0292 would provide an entry point for short positions, targeting support at 1.0241, where moving averages favor buyers. A breakout and consolidation below this range, followed by a retest from below, would be another suitable scenario for selling, aiming for the 1.0210 low and further to 1.0182, reinforcing the bearish trend. The ultimate target would be 1.0132, where I will lock in profits.

If EUR/USD rises in the second half of the day and bears remain inactive around 1.0292, I will postpone short positions until the next resistance at 1.0324. I will sell there only after a failed breakout. If no downward movement occurs at this level, I will look for short positions on a rebound near 1.0356, targeting a 30-35 point intraday correction.

This image is no longer relevant

The December 31 COT report showed a nearly equal rise in long and short positions. Given that the Federal Reserve's policy remained unchanged at the end of the year, the focus is likely to shift to Donald Trump's inauguration and his protectionist rhetoric. However, any statements from Fed officials will also play a critical role in determining the future direction of the US dollar and should not be ignored. The COT report revealed that non-commercial long positions increased by 9,335 to 168,806, while short positions grew by 10,392 to 238,370, widening the gap between longs and shorts by 1,208.

This image is no longer relevant

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages:

Trading is occurring above the 30- and 50-day moving averages, indicating further pair correction potential.

Note: The moving average periods and prices analyzed by the author are based on the hourly H1 chart and differ from classical daily moving averages on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands:

In the event of a decline, the lower boundary of the indicator at 1.0200 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

  • Moving Average (MA): Determines the current trend by smoothing volatility and noise. Period – 50 (yellow on the chart), 30 (green on the chart).
  • MACD Indicator: (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12, Slow EMA – period 26, SMA – period 9.
  • Bollinger Bands: Period – 20.
  • Non-Commercial Traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions using the futures market for speculative purposes and meeting specific criteria.
  • Non-Commercial Long Positions: The total long open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Non-Commercial Short Positions: The total short open positions held by non-commercial traders.
  • Total Non-Commercial Net Position: The difference between non-commercial short and long positions.
Miroslaw Bawulski,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
EURUSD
Euro vs US Dollar
Summary
Sell
Urgency
1 day
Analytic
Maxim Magdalinin
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on January 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Monday, the GBP/USD pair demonstrated significant growth. However, let's take a closer look at the hourly timeframe—can we conclude that

Paolo Greco 06:36 2025-01-21 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on January 21? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Monday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair exhibited a sharp and strong rise. The euro began to strengthen almost immediately after the market

Paolo Greco 06:36 2025-01-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on January 21: The Pound Didn't Stand Aside

On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair experienced a significant rise. The factors influencing this movement are similar to those discussed in the EUR/USD article. Surprisingly, there were no specific reasons

Paolo Greco 02:57 2025-01-21 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 21: Rapid Growth and... a Swift Decline?

The EUR/USD currency pair saw a rapid increase of nearly 200 pips on Monday. There were no fundamental reasons for such a movement; the market reacted unexpectedly to Trump's inauguration

Paolo Greco 02:57 2025-01-21 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Plan for the American Session on January 20 (Review of Morning Trades). The Pound Faces Continued Challenges

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2162 level as a key decision point for market entry. Let's analyze the 5-minute chart to see what transpired. A decline

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:15 2025-01-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 20th (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0322 level as a key decision point for market entry. Let's look at the 5-minute chart to see what happened. The rise

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:01 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Margin Zones and Trading Ideas for S&P 500 and NASDAQ (January 20, 2025 - January 24, 2025)

Long-Term Trend: Temporary uncertainty. For buying opportunities, wait for a zig-zag pattern and a breakout above 6099.43. For selling opportunities, wait for a zig-zag pattern and a breakout below 5790.81

08:32 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on January 20: The Pound Targets 1.1800 Again

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its downward trend on Friday. While a weak upward correction was observed on the hourly timeframe, the British pound is gradually sliding towards its lowest

Paolo Greco 02:56 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 20: Flat Movement Continues

The EUR/USD currency pair traded within a narrow range on Friday. On the hourly timeframe, the movement appears flat; however, on the 4-hour timeframe, it is evident that the pair

Paolo Greco 02:56 2025-01-20 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on January 20? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Friday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair continued to trade within a local horizontal channel on Friday. However, the market activity we observed this week cannot

Paolo Greco 23:39 2025-01-19 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.