Analisis Forex & Kajian: 24.05.2022 - Prospective purchase of...

24.05.2022 02:01 PM

Prospective purchase of shares of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) (consumer sector/restaurant business)

Global disadvantages and risks:

The shares of Starbucks were already under pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic factor, internal reasons for financial health, and then the political decision to leave Russia led to the loss of part of the profit and alienated several investors. But the most important, though not critical problems are the presence of negative equity, a high level of debt, and unattractive values of the price/profit ratio (P/E) of 19.58x against the value of 17.1x in the industry and 15.1x in the market, as well as the price-to-profit ratio (PEG), which is 1.4x. The debt ratio of $ 16.024 billion to equity is $ 8.761 billion, but at the same time, the company's debt is well covered by operating cash flow of 33.1% and is offset by EBIT coverage of 11.5 times. The high amount of debt was formed against the background of the repurchase of shares by the company. Due to the capital disparity, it is difficult to estimate the return on equity (ROE) of Starbucks. In general, no events of concern have been detected, nor have insider stock sales been observed over the past 3 months.

Positive:

The company is currently profitable. Profit is projected to grow by an average of 14.1% per year over the next 3 years. Profit increased by 294.8% compared to last year, which is due to the actual end of the coronavirus pandemic. It is expected that by October 1 of this year, revenue will grow to $ 32.286 billion, and net income to $ 3.244 billion. Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to fall to $ 2.72 from $ 3.77 by October 1 of this year. According to 9 analysts from May 10, the possible range is from $ 2.490 to $ 2.970.Distribution of 33 analysts' recommendations on the company's shares: 9 to hold; 14 to buy; 10 to actively buy. The company's shares are undervalued. The overall recommendation rating of the company's stock is 2.4, which is biased towards buy.

Key financial indicators:

The market capitalization is $ 84.205 billion.

Revenue for the last 12 months (TTM) $ 31.329,100 billion.

Net profit for the last 12 months (TTM) $ 4.408,100 billion.

PEG 12 months (TTM) 1.4

P/E 12 months (TTM) 19.58

EPS 12 months (TTM) 3.75

Free Cash Flow (FCF) $3.608,400 billion.

Dividend per share (%) 2.67

Dividend per share ($) 1.96

Ex-dividend date - 12.05.2022

The next dividend payment date is 02.08.2022.

Technical picture:

The paper is trading above the 69.35 support level, consolidating after a prolonged fall. The price is below the middle line of the Bollinger indicator. The MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is growing as well as the histogram. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the level of 50% and demonstrates an attempt to resume growth.

Trading recommendation.

The paper is trading below the 50 and 100 daily moving averages. The price is above the support level of 69.35. The company's shares are declining on the premarket by 0.89% to 72.77 amid a fall in stock index futures in America from the closing level of 73.42 (+0.04%).

Likely target levels:

The 1st target is 76.00 (short-term) from yesterday's closing price of 73.42 (expected yield of 3.39%).

The 2nd target is 91.00 (an expected yield of 19.31%).

The 3rd goal is 107.15 (expected return of 31.47%).

Conclusions:

We believe that the shares of Starbucks have a high recovery potential after the fall. We estimate their possible growth towards the third goal in the period from 3 to 6 months.

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