empty
19.12.2024 03:23 AM
Overview of the GBP/USD Pair December 19; Inflation in the UK Provided No Impact

This image is no longer relevant

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair had every chance to show an interesting, trend-driven intraday movement. However, nothing of the sort happened. Yesterday, the UK released one of the most important reports for the British pound—the inflation report. It was published roughly a day before the Bank of England's final meeting of the year. The outcome of this report was expected to influence the British central bank's decision heavily. However, the data was so lackluster that it failed to elicit any reaction from the market. Of course, the price initially dropped by about 35 pips after the release, only to recover the same amount within the next couple of hours. In essence, nothing changed for the pound.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.6% year-on-year, as forecasted. The core CPI was 3.5% for November, slightly below the 3.6% estimate. Theoretically, only core inflation could have influenced market sentiment, but it didn't. Why? The question remains unanswered. Both figures were indeed "lackluster," but consider how, over the past year or so, the market reacted to even the slightest deviations in U.S. inflation! A deviation of 0.1% could trigger movements larger than those seen after an FOMC meeting! As always, it depends more on the market than the numbers or reports.

What does this mean? Simply, market activity is falling. In our EUR/USD analysis, we already speculated that trading for 2024 might effectively be over. While volatility spikes are possible in thin markets—along with some movements—the market is now entering a phase of emotional instability. Essentially, this means the market will stagnate or overreact to routine news simply because there are few participants. It seems likely that the British pound will face a similar situation in the remaining two weeks.

This scenario doesn't surprise us. First, the holiday season isn't ideal for trading in the currency markets. Second, the GBP/USD pair began its corrective phase three weeks ago. Corrections can take much time, and we've warned about this repeatedly. Thus, it will be a normal development if the pound trades sideways or has a slight upward bias for the next few weeks.

The global downtrend remains intact. The broader fundamental backdrop hasn't changed either. The pound sterling is still afloat only because the Bank of England is in no rush to cut the key rate. Today, the BoE might again support the pound, but only if the number of Monetary Policy Committee officials voting in favor of a rate cut is less than one—a scenario that seems hard to believe.

This image is no longer relevant

The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last five trading days is 98 pips, considered "average" for the pound/dollar pair. On Thursday, December 19, we expect movement within the range limited by the levels of 1.2480 and 1.2676. The higher linear regression channel is pointing downward, indicating a bearish trend. The CCI indicator recently dipped into the oversold area again, but as we have repeatedly warned, the pound ultimately aims to resume its downward trend. Any oversold signal in a bearish trend is merely a signal for correction.

Nearest Support Levels:

  • S1 – 1.2573
  • S2 – 1.2451

Nearest Resistance Levels:

  • R1 – 1.2695
  • R2 – 1.2817
  • R3 – 1.2939

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD currency pair maintains a bearish trend but continues to correct. We still do not consider long positions, as we believe that the market has already priced in all the factors driving the British currency's growth multiple times. If you are trading based on "pure technicals," long positions are possible with a target of 1.2817 if the price consolidates above the moving average line. However, short positions remain much more relevant now, with targets at 1.2573 and 1.2480.

Explanation of Illustrations:

Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.

Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.

Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.

Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.

CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.

Paolo Greco,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2024
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY.Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par USD/JPY está recuando de sua máxima de cinco meses. Os investidores parecem estar desconsiderando a atualização da política monetária do Banco do Japão (BoJ) divulgada ontem, quinta-feira

Irina Yanina 16:40 2024-12-20 UTC+2

O que esperar em 20 de dezembro? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Um número razoável de eventos macroeconômicos está programado para sexta-feira, mas nenhum é relevante. Será divulgado um relatório de vendas no varejo no Reino Unido, que não é particularmente crítico

Paolo Greco 15:14 2024-12-20 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Análise e previsão

A incerteza em torno de 2025 pode criar oportunidades interessantes para investidores bem preparados. A economia global enfrenta um momento delicado, com diversos cenários em jogo. A volatilidade do mercado

Irina Yanina 14:26 2024-12-20 UTC+2

USD/CAD.Análise e previsão

Hoje, o par USD/CAD continua seu movimento de recuo intradiário em relação ao nível mais alto registrado desde março de 2020. A queda pode ser atribuída à realização de lucros

Irina Yanina 15:21 2024-12-19 UTC+2

EUR/USD é negociado de forma estável, antecipando calmamente a turbulência após o anúncio do Fed

O par EUR/USD está sendo negociado dentro de uma faixa estreita, enquanto o mercado aguarda o desfecho da reunião de dezembro da Reserva Federal. Tanto compradores quanto vendedores evitam assumir

Irina Manzenko 17:12 2024-12-18 UTC+2

O que esperar do dólar americano após a reunião do Fed?

Enquanto os especialistas de Wall Street se perguntam como o dólar americano reagirá à próxima decisão de taxa de juros do Fed, e o BCE avalia o futuro da inflação

Marek Petkovich 17:00 2024-12-18 UTC+2

O que esperar em 18 de dezembro? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Apenas alguns eventos macroeconômicos estão programados para quarta-feira, mas alguns são altamente significativos. Começando com o relatório de inflação do Reino Unido, dados recentes indicam que a economia do Reino

Paolo Greco 15:09 2024-12-18 UTC+2

USD/JPY: Análise e previsão

Durante a sessão asiática, o iene japonês conseguiu recuperar modestamente suas perdas anteriores. No entanto, o crescimento sustentado da moeda do Extremo Oriente é incerto, especialmente porque o Banco

Irina Yanina 14:22 2024-12-18 UTC+2

O dólar divide e conquista

Melhor juntos do que sozinhos? A situação atual da zona do euro levanta dúvidas sobre essa ideia. Enquanto a Alemanha enfrenta dificuldades econômicas, a Espanha prospera, impulsionada pela migração

Marek Petkovich 13:43 2024-12-18 UTC+2

XAU/USD: Análise e previsão

Os preços do ouro hoje estão oscilando em uma faixa estreita, alternando entre ganhos modestos e pequenas perdas, enquanto os investidores aguardam a decisão de política monetária do Comitê Federal

Irina Yanina 13:31 2024-12-18 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.