empty
25.09.2024 04:21 PM
Analysis of GBP/USD pair on September 25th. The Market Continues to Increase Long Positions

This image is no longer relevant

The wave analysis for GBP/USD remains quite complex and continues to evolve. Initially, the wave pattern seemed quite convincing, suggesting a formation of a downward wave set targeting below the 1.23 level. However, in practice, the demand for the British pound continues to grow, disrupting any wave patterns. The market tirelessly continues to increase long positions.

Currently, I can only assume a significant complication of the upward trend section that began on April 22. Some corrective waves might be classified on a smaller scale (as substructures), thereby increasing the number of major upward waves. Assuming the current movement is impulsive, it appears we are in the major third wave that started on August 8. If this assumption holds, we have seen waves 1 and 2 within it. Therefore, there is substantial room for further growth in the pound.

The Pound Is Resilient in Any Market Conditions

The GBP/USD rate had decreased by 10 basis points on Wednesday but was likely to make substantial gains by the end of the day and close in positive territory. This mirrors Monday's pattern, where the pound began the day lower but ended with strong growth. Neither Monday's nor today's news background supported the strengthening of the pound. On Tuesday, the British currency also appreciated without any clear reasons.

Currently, the market relies on a single factor to continually increase long positions: the expectation that the Federal Reserve will rapidly cut rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is currently a 62% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in November. Notably, only a week has passed since the last Fed meeting, and no new economic data has emerged to suggest a worsening of either the labor market or overall economic conditions. Also, there has been no new inflation data to indicate a further decrease. Therefore, it remains unclear why the market is so confident of a 50 basis point cut, especially after Jerome Powell explicitly stated last week that the easing in September was not a "regular step."

However, market participants expect at least a 75 basis point cut by the end of the year, which is far less than what the Bank of England can afford. Consequently, demand for the U.S. dollar continues to decline, even though there have been no new negative reports from the U.S. Next week, key U.S. economic data will be released, potentially shifting the market's focus. If the labor market and unemployment figures once again show unsatisfactory results, another decline in the dollar could drive the pair towards the 1.36 level.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

The wave structure of GBP/USD continues to grow more complex. If the upward trend that started on April 22 initially seemed to be in a five-wave form, it could extend much further. I still find selling the instrument more attractive, but it requires clear signals. Currently, I am confident a new upward wave is beginning. The immediate target for this wave is the 1.3440 level, corresponding to 127.2% on the Fibonacci scale. A successful breakthrough at this mark could even set the market's sights on the 1.38 level.

On a larger wave scale, the pattern has transformed, now suggesting the formation of a complex and prolonged upward corrective structure. It is currently a three-wave pattern, but it could evolve into a five-wave structure, which might take several more months or even longer to complete.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often change.
  2. If there is uncertainty about market movements, it's better to stay out of the market.
  3. There is never 100% certainty about the direction of movement. Always remember to set protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

NG 12 Feb. ¡Los toros mantienen el rumbo hacia un máximo de 4,31!

El marco temporal de cuatro horas muestra el trazado de una onda activa principal (Y), que tiene una forma interna compleja y es un doble zigzag de un nivel

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

SP500 12 de febrero. ¡Después de la finalización de la segunda parte del impulso, el precio puede subir más activamente!

Lo más probable es que se esté formando una tendencia alcista mayor en el panorama global del SP500, cuya estructura es similar a la del impulso. Si nos fijamos

Roman Onegin 07:26 2025-02-12 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 7 de julio. ¿Dónde se encuentra la raíz de todos los problemas del dólar?

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:58 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 6 de julio. El destino complicado del dólar.

El conteo de ondas en el gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD permanece sin cambios. Actualmente estamos observando la formación de la supuesta onda

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 6 de julio. La libra quiere caer, pero no puede.

La estructura de ondas del instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicada y muy confusa. Alrededor del nivel de 1.2822, que corresponde al 23.6% de Fibonacci y está cerca del pico

Chin Zhao 15:57 2024-07-07 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 22 de junio. El mercado espera la primera bajada de los tipos de interés en agosto.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado y confuso. Un intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó

Chin Zhao 13:12 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 22 de junio. La Fed: No está lista para el aterrizaje.

En el gráfico de 4 horas, no hay cambios en la marca de la onda para el instrumento EUR/USD. En este momento, observamos la construcción de la esperada onda

Chin Zhao 10:51 2024-06-22 UTC+2

Análisis del par GBP/USD. El 8 de junio. Los británicos retrocedieron, pero no se rindieron.

El patrón de onda para el instrumento GBP/USD sigue siendo bastante complicado. El intento exitoso de romper el nivel de Fibonacci del 50,0% en abril indicó que el mercado está

Chin Zhao 08:27 2024-06-09 UTC+2

Análisis del par EUR/USD. El 8 de junio. El BCE confía en una mayor desaceleración de la inflación.

El patrón de onda del gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento EUR/USD se mantiene sin cambios. En este momento, estamos observando la construcción de la onda esperada

Chin Zhao 08:26 2024-06-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Análisis del 2 de octubre. Las estadísticas europeas vuelven a decepcionar y el euro vuelve a caer

El análisis de ondas del gráfico de 4 horas para el par euro/dólar sigue siendo bastante claro. Durante el año pasado, solo hemos visto tres estructuras onduladas que se alternan

Chin Zhao 17:48 2023-10-02 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.