empty
07.04.2025 07:13 PM
Forecast for EUR/USD on April 7, 2025

On Friday, it's difficult to define what exactly the EUR/USD pair accomplished. The decline is undeniable, signaling a strengthening of the U.S. dollar. But who can confidently say the dollar is truly rising? On Friday, the dollar strengthened, but on Thursday, it collapsed, and the new week started with another drop. Levels are being ignored, and traders are panicking, running from one side to the other. Chart analysis doesn't work anymore.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart has changed. The last completed downward wave broke through the low of the previous wave, but the last upward wave also broke through the previous peak. Thus, waves currently indicate a potential trend reversal toward the bullish side. Donald Trump continues to impose new import tariffs, and panic and chaos persist in the markets. The bulls became active again last week, but it's difficult to say who really holds the initiative right now.

The news background on Friday undoubtedly helped the dollar and the bears. The Nonfarm Payrolls report showed 228,000 new jobs, while traders had expected significantly less. However, at the same time, the unemployment rate increased, and wage growth slowed from 4% to 3.8%. It's worth remembering that wage growth can reflect future inflation trends: if wages grow quickly, inflation may accelerate; if the pace slows, inflation may also decelerate. Therefore, only the Nonfarm report supported the dollar— the other two did not. Based on this, the following can be said. First, one should not interpret Friday's dollar strength as the end of its decline. Trump is still here, no impeachment has been filed, and he's ready to escalate the trade war further. And as we can see, not all countries are willing to blindly follow Washington's lead. In my view, the trade war will only expand, and the dollar may well continue to collapse on this wave.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair completed a new reversal in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 76.4% retracement level – 1.0969. The euro's growth, which hasn't been supported by any EU data, could have ended long ago. However, Trump continues to exert intense pressure on the dollar. A close above 1.0969 allows for further growth toward the next Fibonacci level of 100.0% – 1.1213. The RSI indicator is overbought, but the news background is more important.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

Over the last reporting week, professional traders closed 6,549 Long positions and opened 7,141 Short positions. The "Non-commercial" group sentiment has recently turned bullish again — thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of Long positions held by speculators now stands at 183,000, while Short positions number 131,000.

For twenty weeks, major players were getting rid of the euro, but for the past eight weeks, they've been reducing Short positions and increasing Long positions. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed still favors the U.S. dollar due to the widening rate differential, but Donald Trump's policies are becoming a more influential factor for traders, as they may exert a dovish influence on the Fed's policy and potentially lead to a recession in the U.S. economy.

News calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

Eurozone – German Industrial Production (06:00 UTC) Eurozone – Retail Sales (09:00 UTC)

April 7 contains two scheduled events in the economic calendar. Their impact on market sentiment may be weak. However, it's worth remembering that tariff-related news is more important right now. If any party to the trade war introduces new tariffs or retaliatory measures over the weekend, Monday's market movements will not depend on these two Eurozone reports.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today on a rebound from the 1.1017 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.0957. Buying is possible on a close above 1.1017 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1081. Given current volatility, avoiding risk may be the best strategy.

Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Pronóstico para el gas al 8 de abril de 2025

Gas natural (NG) Ni al final de la semana pasada, ni mucho menos al comienzo de la actual, la cotización del gas natural logró superar la resistencia de 4.200, reforzada

Laurie Bailey 08:11 2025-04-08 UTC+2

Pronóstico del gas para el 17 de marzo de 2025

Gas natural (NG) La jornada de hoy se abrió por encima de la línea indicadora Kruzenshtern en el marco diario. Al mismo tiempo, el oscilador Marlin cambió de dirección hacia

Laurie Bailey 07:02 2025-03-17 UTC+2

Pronóstico para el Bitcoin el 21 de febrero de 2025

Bitcoin El Bitcoin ha cambiado de opinión sobre el desarrollo de una caída hacia soportes objetivos cómodos, y en su lugar, siguiendo el sentimiento de riesgo general, ha revertido desde

Laurie Bailey 07:23 2025-02-21 UTC+2

Bitcoin - análisis técnico de la situación

Viernes, y el Bitcoin sigue esperando. Ninguna de las partes enfrentadas tiene prisa por presentarse y ser activa. En la incertidumbre actual, el posicionamiento de los principales índices de referencia

Evangelos Poulakis 07:45 2025-02-14 UTC+2

Previsión para el gas natural (GN) del 5 de febrero de 2025

En el gráfico semanal la semana pasada el precio se revirtió desde el nivel de soporte 3.017 - desde los máximos de septiembre 2024, agosto 2023, febrero 2023 y también

Laurie Bailey 07:51 2025-02-05 UTC+2

#NDX - análisis técnico de la situación

A finales del año pasado, el índice marcó un nuevo máximo histórico (22141), tras lo cual se detuvo la subida, comenzó la formación de la corrección y la consolidación. Ahora

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-02-04 UTC+2

Bitcoin 30 Enero - análisis técnico de la situación

A pesar de marcar un nuevo máximo la semana pasada (109986), el Bitcoin detuvo su tendencia alcista y comenzó a formar incertidumbre. Hasta ahora, el formato semanal ha proyectado

Evangelos Poulakis 07:24 2025-01-30 UTC+2

#SPX (contrato CFD sobre futuros del SP500). Esperamos que la subida continúe

El contrato CFD sobre futuros del S&P 500 se recupera vigorosamente tras una caída local del lunes por la oleada de noticias sobre el éxito de la empresa china DeepSeek

Pati Gani 11:06 2025-01-29 UTC+2

Nasdaq 100. Se esperan nuevos máximos históricos

La toma de posesión hoy de Donald Trump marcará el inicio del segundo mandato de su presidencia, acompañado de promesas de reforzar la posición de EE. UU. en la escena

Anna Zotova 10:00 2025-01-20 UTC+2

Bitcoin – análisis técnico de la situación

El año pasado los principales logros y ventajas estuvieron del lado de los compradores. El año 2024 les trajo un nuevo máximo histórico (108362,36), superando el máximo anterior registrado

Evangelos Poulakis 06:55 2025-01-20 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.